Just weeks after winning one local election vote and coming close to winning another, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is set to face off Sunday with Olaf Solz's Social Democrats in elections in Brandenburg, an SPD stronghold since German reunification here. and over three decades, elections that may determine the chancellor's political future.
With slogans against immigration, the installation of wind turbines and the equipment of Ukraine, the AfD has a lead of three percentage points in the opinion polls and 30% of the intention to vote. The SPD is paying for resentment towards the federal government because of high inflation, the war in Ukraine and the influx of immigrants, but has managed to narrow the gap in recent polls.
"Brandenburg has historically been a stronghold of the SPD," says Philip Tometesk, professor of political science at the University of Potsdam. "If they don't win here, it will be a big upset."
A year before national elections, Sunday's vote will either spark a challenge to his party leadership or, if the SPD holds on to its stronghold, confirm that he will run for chancellor.
His conservative rivals lead with a third of the national vote, according to opinion polls, while the SPD and AFD are battling for second place.
Christian unions this week announced their chancellor candidate for the 2025 election: the flamboyant, ultraconservative Friedrich Merz. But Solz and many social democrats are betting on the low popularity of the gaffe Mertz.
Although it is still not being said openly, there are people in the SPD who believe that Olaf Solz should follow the path of Joe Biden and give way to a more charismatic figure, such as Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
But a win in Olaf Solz's home state of Brandenburg may quell those whispers.
The SPD avoided mentioning Olaf Solz during the election campaign. He preferred to put forward Brandenburg's wildly popular Prime Minister Dittmann Voytke, who has said that if the AfD wins he will resign and will not stand to lead a possible coalition either.
"The goal is to prevent the AfD from winning," he said.
"The windmills of Mordor"
Although the AfD won the Thuringian elections, it failed to form a coalition. The German far-right party has no chance of forming a local or federal government since all other political parties refuse to cooperate with a party labeled as extremist, racist and a nest of Russian and Chinese agents.
Brandenburg's economic landscape is characterized by great disparities between the wealthy Berlin region and the poor rural areas of the German state's countryside, which is home to Tesla's first European factory.
In addition to the concerns about Ukraine and immigration that it exploited during the election campaign, the AfD also instrumentalized the people's concern about the energy transition: the head of the far-right party in the state, Hans-Christoph Bird, spoke of the "unbearable terror of the landscapes of Mordor” referring to…wind farms.
He caused embarrassment, but also some approval when he translated the Christian "love your neighbor as yourself" as follows: "As a Catholic I believe that love for your neighbor means that you have to take care of the people of your country."
If the SPD is defeated in Sunday's election, it will pave the way for Merz's Christian Democrats to form a coalition in Brandenburg, perhaps with the support of the new socially conservative, economically left-wing Alliance party Sarah Wagenknecht and others.
Dethroning the SPD from its stronghold would give a boost to the newly appointed Merz and could be the kick-off for open rebellion within the SPD against Olaf Solz.\
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