Who will rule Syria? Risk of fragmentation of the country

 

Things are far from simple...

Agony prevails over the situation in Syria, which remains complex, but recent developments point to possible future scenarios.

Stanislav Tarasov, a political analyst and expert on the Middle East and the Caucasus region, told Sputnik.

Why did the regime change happen so quickly? Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has peacefully transferred power to the opposition, in accordance with the Doha agreement, just days after the militants began their advance! "An internal conspiracy was probably taking place within the Syrian leadership and military personnel," Tarasov stressed.

Who will rule Syria? It is not yet clear which opposition group will dominate. Tarasov argued that if the secular opposition prevails, Syria will have a secular government. Conversely, if Islamist factions take control, the country may see a Taliban-style leadership.

Tarasov believes that the chances of fragmentation of Syria are high, with possible scenarios such as:

Turkey takes control of Aleppo and Idlib
Kurds establish their own state with the support of Israel and the US (p.s. They already have their own (the lands around the Euphrates to the east)
The rest of the country is divided into various enclaves


In Turkey they are celebrating the fall of Assad, but they are worried about the strengthening of the Kurdish YPG/PKK factor in the region. Everyone is waiting for the sequel.